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The 2027 Social Security COLA: what it is and what to expect
By The Trends Incoming team · 2026-10-14
If you or someone you love gets Social Security, today matters. The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is expected to be announced on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, the same morning the government publishes September inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET. As we publish, the official number isn't out yet. When it is, it'll appear on SSA's COLA page, and we'll update this post.
What a COLA is
Every year, Social Security and SSI benefits get adjusted so they keep up with inflation. It isn't a raise Congress votes on. The formula is set by law. SSA compares the average of a specific inflation index, the CPI-W, for July, August and September with the same three months a year earlier. The percentage change, rounded to a tenth of a point, becomes the COLA. If prices fall, benefits stay put rather than going down.
Why it's trending
Because the forecasts are higher than last year. For 2026, the COLA was 2.8%. For 2027, The Senior Citizens League and analyst Mary Johnson both forecast 3.5%, and CNBC reported AARP at 3.6%. Other reports say AARP later trimmed its estimate to 3.5%. Either way, that would be the biggest bump in three years. TSCL estimates a 3.5% COLA would raise the average retirement check by about $67.90 a month, from about $1,940 to about $2,008.
There's a flip side. CNBC talked to older Americans who worry the increase won't cover what they're actually paying for groceries, housing and health care. Medicare Part B premiums, which are usually deducted from Social Security checks, also tend to rise. That can eat part of the raise.
The backstory
COLA announcements usually land in mid-October with the September CPI report. Last year, though, a government shutdown delayed the data and pushed the announcement to late October. This year there's no shutdown as of today, so the schedule is back to normal. Forecasts have drifted over the year. TSCL projected 3.9% in April, 3.6% by August and 3.5% last month, as each month's inflation data came in.
When you'll actually see it
- The COLA applies to December 2026 benefits, which are paid in January 2027.
- Because January 1 is a holiday, some people, including SSI recipients, get their first 2027 payment on December 31, 2026.
- SSA mails COLA notices in December, and many people can see theirs in their online my Social Security account.
- There's nothing to apply for. The adjustment is automatic.
What's next
Once the number is out, the next shoe to drop is the 2027 Medicare Part B premium, which determines how much of the COLA you actually keep. Medicare open enrollment starts October 15 and runs through December 7. That's a good time to check whether your plan still fits.
Where to follow it
Go straight to SSA's COLA page for the official figure, not a screenshot on social media. For context and what it means for your budget, reputable outlets like CNBC and AARP are useful. The hashtag links below show what people are saying, but treat any number there as unofficial until SSA posts it.
Quick answers
When is the 2027 COLA announced?
It's expected October 14, 2026, alongside the September CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
When will I see the increase?
In benefits for December 2026, paid in January 2027. Some SSI payments arrive December 31, 2026.
Do I need to apply?
No. The COLA is automatic.
Follow it
The trend card
Social Security COLA day
The 2027 COLA is expected today, right after the September CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Not official yet. Forecasts are 3.5% to 3.6%, which would be the biggest raise in three years. It hits January checks.
Sources
By The Trends Incoming team · Fact-checked 2026-10-14. Dates change, so double-check with the official source.